The ‘GRP’-MILF Draft MoA: Designed To Fail?

The Supreme Court, as the headlines this morning announce, issued a temporary restraining order on that Bangsamoro ancestral domain agreement between the Arroyo government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

But as this writer reported at FilipinoVoices.com and in my main blog at midfield.wordpress.com, the MILF ’scooped’ the Supreme Court TRO hours before it came out by announcing a later date, August 25, for the signing of the agreement.

A close reading of the subsequent details in the converging stories wil show that the Supreme Court set the oral arguments for the case filed by the local officials of North Cotabato and Zamboanga City for the 15th of the months, a full ten days before the MILF’s adjusted date.

This ‘coincidence’ clearly allocates a full ten days more before the de facto deadline of August 25, breathing space enough for both the Supreme Court to either junk or allow the agreement (an extreme likelihood) and for the government of the day to ‘calm the fears of and win over’ the MoA’s oppositors.

A ‘cooling down period’, in a manner of speaking, right?

But as Makati congressman and lawyer-journalist Teodoro Locsin clearly puts it: “It is the formal and voluntary dismemberment of the Republic,”

Mon Casiple, Executive Director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform (IPER) elaborates:“Based on the few precious details available, the scope of authority of the BJE seems to approximate–if not the same as–the authority of a local state in a federal state system. If so, what is going to be signed on August 5 will be beyond the autonomy mandated by the 1987 constitution.

The constitution speaks of a national state territory including all those mentioned in the agreement. It also speaks of a unified armed forces and police force. Further, it specifically defines autonomy as the only possible framework for Muslim Mindanao and prohibits any delegation of state authority outside of the constitution.

Article XII, Section 2 also stipulates that, “All lands of the public domain, waters, minerals, coal, petroleum, and other mineral oils, all forces of potential energy, fisheries, forests or timber, wildlife, flora and fauna, and other natural resources are owned by the State. With the exception of agricultural lands, all other natural resources shall not be alienated. The exploration, development, and utilization of natural resources shall be under the full control and supervision of the State.”

The political question that arises on August 5 is: Where did the President and her negotiators got their authority to promise what they cannot give?’

“If what they are thinking of doing is to change the 1987 constitution in order to shift the Philippine state from its current unitary system (albeit recognizing local autonomy) to a federal state system with local states, then they are putting the cart before the horse. They should do this before negotiating on a federal framework for the peace process.

Otherwise, they open themselves to the charge of treason based on the dismemberment of the Philippine State and to accusation of acceding to an agreement in bad faith–when they do not have the constitutional mandate for their negotiating position and their signature on the eventual agreement.”

Finally, the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s John Nery gives us a very clear reading:

‘”… my impression after two readings of the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s copy of the draft MOA is that the basic framework is actually not the government’s, but the MILF’s.”

And behind all these, could there be method in the mafness now unfolding, could it be that the agreement was designed to be un-implementable?

Is it doomed to fail, as least within the remaining lifespan of the current administration?

This, in my view, can be gleaned from the indicative time line for the establishment of the so-called Bsangsamoro Juridical Entity which Manolo Quezon (MLQ3) posted in his Daily Dose last night, with the graphics from Mon Casiple as reportedly prepared by a member of the GRP team.